There is a difference between confidence and overt cockiness, one is an asset and the other will get you killed. I felt the need to write about this topic after reading various comments on multiple blogs reference the portrayal of Tyler Smith and his overweight band of merry marauders which aired recently on DDP. Supposedly this group of cerebral tacticians do not plan on prepping for any sort of SHTF event. Why? Well their plan is to simply take from others, to overrun other preppers and pillage their supplies. The quote from Tyler which made its way around the world (or at least the internet) reads as follows:
We are those people,” he says. “We’ll kick your door in and take your supplies. … We are the marauders.
First things first: these guys obviously aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed and I wonder as to the effectiveness of their plan(s). However that does not mean one should take any threat like theirs (or similar ones) lightly and shrug them off. I wish I had a dollar for every comment following various postings of the above story which involved being a sniper and taking them out at 500 yards, or about the amount of firepower one had at their homestead and how they would welcome the attackers… *yawn* Everyone is a tough guy. Everyone has lots of guns and ammo and plans on being able to take out armies of looters with their superior tactics and training which were honed via years of YouTube videos, plinking at the range and a few weekend training courses which they paid way too much money to attend.
The deal is this, underestimating any enemy combined with overestimating your own capabilities can definitely be fatal, even when considering what appears to be the least threatening of circumstances. I don’t care if you have 5 shooters in a home who were all were prior military and all of which can knock the hair off of a gnat’s behind while hanging upside down blindfolded and naked. If you have 80 to 100 armed (hungry) individuals assaulting your home at night and pouring lead into your position you will be in a WORLD of hurt. If one or two of your crew get shot or happen to lose their nerve and are reduced to a sniveling pile of tear shedding goo in the corner the situation turns bleak very quickly. Now all of a sudden instead of thumping your body armor you are praying to God to allow you and your family to live for just one more day.
I’m not advocating that we should lay down and die or surrender to any band of mindless marauders. What I am stating that that we have to be SMART, we have to calculate risks and pick our battles wisely. We have to remember that the family who lives through the worst of things and begins to rebuild after TEOTWAWKI is the family who WINS. If SHTF does happen most of the tough guys will be wounded or dead very quickly. These are the guys who will seek out trouble, who will put themselves and their families at unnecessary risk because they will feel the need to justify all of the tactical gear they bought or the put to use the “training” they were exposed to. Obviously if pushed to a point where there is no alternative defending those we love will become a necessity, in which case our actions will be justified. However we must remember that the best weapon that we have is between our ears and the best gunfight is the one that we never have to get into. I’d rather be a smart guy who lives to see another day than a tough guy who puts himself at unnecessary risk. I also hope to always put the best interests of my family before that of my ego, something that can often be a challenge for many Type A personality males.
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I happened to watch that episode. I laughed, I shook my head, got mad, and fired off a pretty nasty email to National Geographic. Plain and simple, this idiot should not have even been given any air time and as cool as he thinks he is, he represents all that is wrong with our society in the U.S. today. You know the mentality of letting someone else do the work and just sit on your ass and take what you want without putting forth productive effort. I wonder how many other idiots out there were inspired by this idiot?
As far as playing tough guy, that is for those that believe a war movie is an accurate representation of what actually happens. I happen to be confident in my abilities but the golden rule is 3:1 with a fudge to 4:1 – meaning that if three or more people are deliberately attacking my position then my odds are even or less than even. More than that and I am in trouble. So with 90 people attacking, I need 30 on the line defending for a draw.
On the same note and specifically speaking toward “fat ass’s marauders”, I am confident in my training and abilities to make life hell for them as an individual. Their preps, “training”, and conditioning appeared severely lacking – comical even, if not so tragic. As an individual, I can be mobile and make it all about attrition. With my family in tow, not so much.
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Maj
Great point about 3:1 and 4:1 ratio. Their lack of conditioning is indeed tragic….
The guy was just recently arrested. He is a felon and was arrested for possession of a firearm. You’d think NG would vet these people before they film them.
NGC wants this type of individual. It is kind of like the guys in GA that were preparing for a “Red Dawn” scenario and built a “Trojan horse” out of a propane tank so they could move “behind enemy lines”. That kind of stuff just points to how crazy preppers are as a group and makes non-preppers want to sit, watch, and make fun of all those “preppers” because everyone knows they are all the same. NGC is not interested in “real” stories about “everyday” preppers (not saying everyone on their show is not a prepper – just not always portrayed that way), besides, it would make for pretty boring television following me around in my preps and I imagine that goes for 99% of preppers.
Unfortunately, if there is any vetting done, it is more for shock value and stupidity than for anything else.
I do find it funny that CPT Pudgy allowed himself to be filmed breaking the law and I truly hope he pays dearly for it.
The Major is absolutely correct, 3 to 1 are realistic odds but 4 to 1 pushes the limits of survival. That said I would like to offer some other information that I believe the Major will confirm.
In a well trained fighting unit, unit cohesion disintegrates (technical term is “unit disintegration”) at about 50%—give or take 10% depending on training. In other words the unit will cease to fight effectively when the unit experiences a loss of 50%. Now, military tacticians have wondered why this occurs and it seems to be in the fact that as a general rule the 50% who are killed or wounded are normally those who do the bulk of the fighting and/or leading.
The US Army has found that in any unit (excluding Special Forces) only 3 out of every 5 carry the fight to the enemy (of the remaining 2 we have found that there is a high probability that ONE won’t even fire his/her weapon while the other will fire but with no accuracy). It then becomes logical as to who is most likely to be lost during the battle.
Now the question becomes; would this hold true for a bunch of marauding thieves? The answer is yes, but with this caveat. The less a bunch has trained together the quicker unit cohesion disintegrates. At what rate this would occur is debatable but I am willing to bet most of these macho morons has never been in battle and the first time one or more of their group is screaming in pain or has blood splattered all over them they will become unnerved.
Violent blood shed does funny things to different people. Some will become angry then reckless in an attack but MOST will recoil in horror and fear. Their minds will shut down as a defense against the sickening sights, sounds and smells of the carnage that result. This may or may not be enough to repel a large group of thugs. That question can’t be answered until the event arises, but it is something to keep in mind.
The point is that if you are forced into a fight then you have got to be absolutely ruthless in your defense. That is the only means of getting the odds down to where you have any hope of surviving the attack.
As always the first and best defense is to avoid the fight.
The percentages would be both lower for the point of break down (probably 20% loss to a group like this) and much higher for those without the desire to truly fight (4 out of 5 is my guess). I do not care how much training they do, they would not measure up to the training and skill level a medical unit has for defending a perimeter.
Where a group like this has the advantage is in their numbers. They would probably be able to show up with 40 warm bodies and bluff or bully their way through when dealing with individual families or smaller groups. Things change when the bullets start flying though and eventually a group like this would fall apart or consume itself. Unfortunately, damage would be done before this happened.
I would imagine this mental midget has made more of a target for his group and himself than he intended by doing this show. Obviously his “survivalism” training did not teach him the all important rule of OPSEC. I am still shaking my head – “80 paying members of his group” and they all want to learn “survivalism” from him?
Yes Sir, I believe you are correct. Their unit cohesion would collapse at around 20% attrition maybe less under certain conditions. Whenever I hear of thugs like this I think of Major Reno and the part he and his 175 men played at the 1875 battle of the Little Big Horn.
While history calls Reno a hero the Sioux defenders have a different story, one that I believe is far more accurate. The Sioux accounts are adamant that they sent only a blocking force to encounter Maj. Reno’s force on their southern flank. The Sioux also admit that if Reno had pressed the attack they had no means of stopping him. The Sioux blocking force had the good fortune of unnerving Reno when they shot his lead scout splattering blood and human tissue on Reno.
Once Reno’s companies had dismounted and taken up defensive positions the battle quickly disintegrated into a route. This was due, in large part, to Reno’s inability to continue to function as an effective leader. In all probability Reno’s fear became contagious and even court testimony points out that Reno’s “subordinates… did more for the safety of the command by brilliant displays of courage than did Major Reno.”
Before Reno’s retreat his losses had been minimal some reports say 2 dead others say as many as 10. (Using the larger number of 10 results in an attrition rate just short of 6%.) The point is that Reno’s 175 man force disintegrated into a chaotic free for all because of being physically tired, improper training, fear and poor leadership. This I believe is the secret to stopping mad men like the ones we are discussing but to do so the initial contact must be extremely violent; especially against the so called leaders who should be easily identified.
You gentlemen have brought up some salient points and covered most of the material concerning that show very well. I truly enjoyed reading your insightful comments, thank you for posting!
Two other segments of that show that truly disturbed me were when Tyler Smith was preparing to act as midwife / surgeon on his wife to deliver their baby by C-section, if necessary. The V.O. stated, “C-sections are the most likely way to get infections over any other type of wound”, or something similar to that. God help that woman if she allows her husband anywhere within 100 yards of delivering her child. I truly feel sad for her on that, and even SHE had reservations about it on the show.
The other part that was disconcerting was when Smith built his ‘home-made armor’ and proceeded to ask his cohort to shoot him in the chest. What came to mind during that sequence was a Forest Gump phrase: “Stupid is, as stupid does”.
That group would be dangerous due to their larger group size, lack of training and preparedness and unpredictability IMHO. I’m guessing that their roving looters would be in no more than a cluster of 20-25, with the remainder staying near their compound for ‘defense’. 5 or 6 well-trained individuals (READ: Military training) would be most likely to route them when combined with sufficient perimeter defenses.
I find it upsetting that there are probably more of these idiot types out there that plan on leeching off of the rest of us, rather than become a self-sustaining community that is well-trained in bushcraft, camping and farming. Those latter 3 skills would be all they needed to ensure a comfortable existence when combined with their group numbers and OPSEC for their own perimeter.
It does my heart good to see others here had similiar reactions to to mine in relation to that episode. I rarely watch DDP, but I happened to be channel surfing and landed on it just as this guy was going on about the “armor” he built.
My initial response was, “Dude, you need to do some serious PT.” My daughter was watching with me and her response was “he jiggles when he runs!”
I think I would just sprinkle some Cheetos over a bear trap to deal with those types…
Everyone, you put in some great posts on this, I just had to try to inject some humor into the situation, in relation to that episode.
LMAO – “Cheetos over a bear trap”. I had the same thought, but it revolved around a box of Twinkies and a dead fall.
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What about jelly doughnuts?
They replayed that same episode again last night. I was channel flipping and caught that exact moment they had his segment on.
Two more things that I was left stupefied about was how Mr. Smith was attempting to drill through metal with a drill in one hand and the helmet in the other, no vises or clamps involved at all. That guy is a walking danger zone!
Also, it was a WWII era ‘steel pot’ type of helmet that he was attaching what basically amounted to the same type of sun visor that football players use, to the front of that helmet. He made a comment to the effect of, “This will provide me more protection for my eyes”.
Holy Raybans, Batman! A thin layer of plastic will not protect his eyes from bullets, and quite honestly, neither will that steel pot helmet, either! There is a specific reason why our military forces went to Kevlar / PASGT helmets in the mid-1980’s.
The truly mystifying puzzlement, IMHO, is how 80+ people see this guy as any sort of knowledgeable leader, and why they actually pay him to be part of his failed group.
Which is worse, him, or them?
And FYI, kudos to the family who moved to Costa Rica and put together an impressive renewable food source system standard of living.
a PASGT / Kevlar helmet can be picked up for as little as $100-$300, new or used, depending on your source.
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Or one could pick up a cool guy helmet for around $500. After all…everyone is an operator these days
I am actually very glad they included this guy in their episodes….. The vast majority of Americans are not preppers.
I never understood why everyone just assumes that the millions of people in major cities will just lay down and die, I can assure you that every human has the desire to live. I am not sure why people think they are the only ones that ever heard of hunting, but I kinda have to think that the hundred thousand acre forest most plan to hide in will run out of things to shoot when flooded by 3 hundred thousand starving people with guns. I spent 3 months in Africa….. Mali to be specific, biggest animal I saw that was not domesticated was a 6 inch long lizard….. and a lot of scorpions.
I really think that roving bands of people like this will be far more common than nice organized 30 man prepper compounds that might have a chance of defending against them. They have several factors working for them that many seem to dismiss, like practice, combat will be their daily job, members of groups like these will be fighting each other continually, practice makes perfect. They will be ruthless, after a few firefights the individuals peeing on themselves or waisting ammo would be eliminated from within. The structure for the best of the roving gangs is already in place, the bloods, crypts, Mexican Mafia, and 100’s more gangs that can stand up a force of thousands if need be, they are already ruthless killers, they already have a militant chain of command, and they are experts in recruiting others to their cause, without the police, or equal military force to stop them, nothing will.
Anyway, something to think about, I do not think the slob featured on this show would be much of a threat, but dismissing his kind as a threat, is something that could very well be done at your own peril.
I dont think that anyone was dismissing the idea of marauders, or whatever you want to call them. I, personally, was laughing at the ridiculousness of the guy portrayed. Of course there are going to be people like this running around and some are going to be effective at what they do. This is one of the reasons I have found a number of people I can count on to band together and protect each others’ well if the worst ever happens. One thing is certain to me, a dozen of these guys showing up at my house, even if they were his size, would still present a serious problem and probably win if it were just me.
I do agree with your point about hunting not going to be a viable option for long term food supplies. We had a discussion here about it not long ago to similiar effect.
Aw the luxury of sitting by a warm fire in my easy chair honing my skills on the internet.
I stumbled on this web sight through another link, and glad I did.
The post were good and thought provoking.
I’m at the age were running and gunning is still and option but a limited one, so now it is more fall back and make em pay dearly,
We live in SW Oregon The mind set here is everybody will become hunter/gathers, as some one has pointed out that wont last long. So our enemy well have to become our supply chain.
As this post started out with “everyone a tough guy” you have to ask yourself Am I tough enough, and you will never know until the time comes when you have to lay and wait in a ambush to take another human life through the cross hairs or some sort of booby trap.That’s the mental toughness, the physical part is something you can train for .
As I stated earlier I enjoyed the post and will make habit of trying view it daily
God Bless
Kurt
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Kurt
Thanks for your input and the kind words about the site. I’m jealous of your warm fire and easy chair! 🙂
11B, I don’t think anyone dismissed this type of threat but more the idea of a Captain Pudgy putting an effective group together. There will be groups and many will come or originate from gangs. It will be a threat that everyone will have to address and the most effective means of doing so will be to remain unseen or avoid the groups all together.
As for many making it out of the cities, that will depend on the type of event and most that are not preppers at this point will more than likely die in the cities or not very far from them in a total collapse. Everyone, in general is very reluctant to abandon their homes and most will wait for the government to come in and fix things. Sure there will be some mass exodus events but there again you are talking about many that don’t have a 1/2 a tank of gas in there car right now if they even have a car and have never walked more than a mile in their lives. Look at how many did not/could not/would not evacuate during Katrina.
What I did not see mentioned is perhaps the most important thing to take from the show, as well as others like it. Nat Geo is a famously pro gov’t & a pro MSM organization. What they, and others like them, do best is to make a complete farce out of what should be an important/critical topic. 99% of the time, the people that are the focus of their programs are anywhere from slightly off, to extreme jokes(like fat boy described above). Anyone watching the show who happens to be new to the “prepping” concept (and we all know that there is a huge percentage of the population that would be included) has almost no option other than to be left with the feeling that ANYONE who would consider prepping must be a complete and total nut job. It is exactly the same thing that they do when they broadcast shows about 9/11, et cetra.
Most of these shows attempt to do the same thing, make fools out of those on them, and discourage those watching from putting their efforts in that direction. To be real here, in no way do I claim to KNOW exactly how 9/11 happened, but EVERYONE with even an average amount of common sense should know that it DID NOT HAPPEN the way it continues to be told, on related programs shown on NAT GEO and the like, and at the very least demands a legitimate investigation. But still, those who have not bothered to put in the time and effort to educate themselves in regards to that day, have, through programs like this, been conditioned to have a knee jerk reaction ending in “oh you’re just a conspiracy theorist” – when in fact their only point of reference comes from a television show designed to have the viewer shut their mouth and never question anything.
Also, why would anyone who is really serious about preparing for such events, want to show and tell the world what they have and where they have it? Please tell me that. It’s not unlike the Twitter idiots, about 100 million average joe’s who no think that their life is a reality tv show, and everyone wants to know what they had for lunch, and which hand it is that they wipe their butts with. Hint: NOBODY CARES! NOT EVEN A LITTLE.
The bottom line here is this, by taking these shows seriously enough to talk about the people on them, is giving the shows MUCH more credibility than they deserve – and does a disservice to all who actually try do things that will be necessary to future survival.
Author
I’m glad to see we are on the same page 🙂 Well said.
Very good points VOR and one of the reasons I always take those shows with a skeptical view. Their “militia” shows pretty much follow the same path and tend to show the “worst” footage they can produce. The reason you see people willing to go on that show is primarily money. I am guessing here, but it would imagine they get upwards of $50K for doing the show.
I agree with you though, no way, no how I would ever agree to do the show because of OPSEC.
Author
Justice has been served!
http://www.khq.com/story/24481874/buckley-prepper-pleads-not-guilty-to-gun-charge