Russia situation

[PJ]

Creating a new topic from Para B’s response to the rules thread. See below.

• This topic was modified 10 years, 10 months ago by PJ.
• This topic was modified 10 years, 10 months ago by PJ.

[ParaB]

What do you all think about the “harsh words” Obama is throwing Russia’s way? He hasn’t followed through with anything else, so his words are pretty much a joke to the rest of the world, Im sure…..

[PJ]

I’m watching the Russia situation with particular interest. One thing I’m certain of, the populace doesn’t have the stomach for the type of casualties that would be involved in that type of conflict. The #’s put up by the wars in OIF and OEF would probably be eclipsed in a month.

Draft would be mandatory and almost instant.

[Muleskinner]

PJ:

I agree with everything state. There is another problem that most haven’t addressed and that is Putin and Russia are looked on a being far more reasonable then the US government by the American people.

This statement, by a American Russian knows Russian political well, should shed some light: “It is quite amazing for those who remember the Soviet Union of the late 1980 how much the US under Obama has become similar to the USSR under Brezhnev: internally it is characterized by a general sense of disgust and alienation of the people triggered by the undeniable stagnation of a system rotten to its very core. A bloated military and police state with uniforms everywhere, while more and more people live in abject poverty. A public propaganda machine which, like in Orwell’s 1984, constantly boasts of successes everywhere while everybody knows that these are all lies. Externally, the US is hopelessly overstretched and either hated and mocked abroad. Just as in the Soviet days, the US leaders are clearly afraid of their own people so they protect themselves by a immense and costly global network of spies and propagandists who are terrified of dissent and who see the main enemy in their own people.”

This article is entitled: “Why Western Political and Financial Elites Absolutely Hate Vladimir Putin” can be read here: http://www.fromthetrenchesworldreport.com/why-western-political-and-financial-elites-absolutely-hate-vladimir-putin/78333#more-78333

It is a long read but very informative and I think he is very, very close to the truth.

[The Maj]

“Harsh words”? I imagine the only person laughing louder and more often at them is Putin. That is the problem with Obama and those he has chosen to surround himself with – they think that words will make the rest of the world like us or they can get someone to do what they want by “being nice”. We have already seen a ME apology tour that did more to destabilize that part of the world than anything in recent history. Iran has continuously thumbed their noses at us over the development of their nuclear program. North Korea has rattled their sabers more in the past five years than they did in the previous fifteen combined. Venezula is an absolute mess. Russia has a closer relationship with Cuba than it has had since the Cold War. China, who was once our ally against the USSR, is now siding with Russia over the situation in Ukraine. Things have fallen apart diplomatically in Afghanistan and Iraq is looking to buy weapons from Iran (a long time enemy) because our State Department is not delivering on promises made. Can you say “catastrophic foreign policy failure”?

Two problems with their current approach to foreign policy:

1. Fear is a much better motivator than being liked. Personally, I do not care if the rest of the world likes us, as long as they respect us and fear us. There is a gap as wide as the Grand Canyon between being respected and being liked. In order to be respected, there has to be some element of fear that with this action, there is going to be an almost immediate reaction/counter-action. We do not have an immediate reaction, except for “harsh words”. I imagine the phone call between Obama and Putin going something like this: Obama:: “Hey man, I really do not like what you are doing in Ukraine.” Putin:: “So?” Obama:: “You keep this up and we are going to sanction you.” Putin:: “So?” Obama:: “You know, I do not like you very much. Can’t we just hug this out?” Putin:: “Ah, hell no. Anything else?”

2. You need to clean up around your own backdoor before you start telling the rest of the world how things need to be. We have taken this approach for a very long time in this country, without even considering that the rest of the world is not even remotely close to being like us. Do you honestly believe that someone in Africa struggling to find clean drinking water is even remotely interested in the THEORY of global warming or their carbon footprint?

We are fast approaching the Jimmy Carter status of foreign policy failure for those of you old enough to remember it. The USSR was thumbing their nose at us, Iran was holding U.S. citizens hostage, and “our” answer was “teach the world to sing in perfect harmony” (old coke commercial). All we need is a 19 to 23% interest rate (economy in the tank), oil embargo (gas lines and the country at a standstill), and a grain embargo on the USSR (single handedly wiped out farmers by the 100’s) to tip us over the edge.

[Muleskinner]

The Maj:

Define your concept of “fear”. When I think of fear I think of the Japanese Marshal Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto’s statement as to why he wouldn’t invade the US at the start of WWll. Yamamoto feared the US civilian population because there would be a rifle behind “every blade of grass”. That form of respect I am all in favor of but our government sees fear as the means to an end ie if you don’t do what we say we will invade and destroy your country. That is aggression and I find it poor and expensive foreign police which nets us nothing including respect.

[The Maj]

I suppose it all depends on which country you happen to be dealing with. Naturally, the best option is a fear that is born out of respect for your actions. It is not the fact that you run around beating up on everyone, but rather that you have that capability AND are willing to use it as a last resort BUT you will use it when pushed. Every now and then, it has to be demonstrated so that everyone else knows that you will be fair but punishment will be swift as well. Also, we are not talking simply military action here, there are a whole range of options before it ever even comes close to military action (diplomatic, industrial, economic, etc). It is almost like raising your children to an extent – my kids know I love them and will always help them, but they also know that I will take something away or tan their hide if an action or behavior is not corrected quickly (simplest form). Generally, this works with industrial and economic powers that display a little common sense.

Then there are those like North Korea, Iran, various other ME countries, Venezuala, Cuba, etc that must fear your absolute power because it is the only thing that they understand (especially in the ME). They do not respect the value of their own populace and will sacrifice them at the drop of a hat to keep from losing face. Those it has to be an automatic belt to the behind approach or they will not learn the lesson. Hell, even Clinton would fire cruise missles, every now and again to drive a point home.

I am not a warmonger, nor do I advocate military action first. However, you cannot seem weak and timid in the world’s eyes and expect to accomplish much. Obama seems weak to me, so I can only imagine how other world leaders view him. Even our allies have got to be shaking their heads. Couple that with John Kerry and Joe Biden in the mix and it is a literal soup of Jello for foreign policy. Mexico is even telling us what to do and dictating some things to us in our own back yard. To someone like Putin (former Spetznatz and KGB) this deal is like a master chess player taking on a novice checker player in a game of chess. Who you think is going to come out on top?

[PJ]

You all bring up some great points and I won’t even attempt to make a qualified response which provides the level of insight you all have. It’s very clear that at the strategic and higher (world leader?) level these decisions and tactics are super complicated and the 2nd and 3rd order effects can be huge.

I didn’t realize Putin was former Spetznatz…those guys eat rusty nails for breakfast.

[Muleskinner]

The Maj:

In much of your statement I agree with you as long as it is a defensive and not an aggressive engagement. Yet, when Kerry et al complain about Russia’s moving into the Ukraine on “trumped up charges” I immediately think of our invasion of Iraq and our bogus WMD charges. If we are attacked then by all means I am in favor of retaliation (and to this day I am upset over the fact we haven’t destroyed Saudi Arabia for paying for the attack on 9-11-01).

I am not willing to sacrifice any more young people, material, or wealth, to satisfy the greedy 1%ers. The only people who profit from war are the banks and the banking system is the bane of our existence. Until we can fix the problems here in the US I am not sure we are qualified to speak to anyone else’s problems. For instance the police here in the US killed more people last year then we lost in Afghanistan and Iraq. I am not even convinced that we aren’t the cause of the problems in the Ukraine.

Just for a moment consider Russia’s dilemma. As long as Russia controls the Ukraine there is only one way to attack her and that is in the manner that Hitler did; through Poland. As long as Russia controls the Ukraine she has a mountain range that keeps her eastern boarders safe with a minimum military force. It also keeps NATO from surrounding her and cutting off Russia’s only warm water ports. Now, besides the obvious military need for the Ukraine think of what the loss of those warm water ports would mean to Russia’s economy. A free market economy, that is virtually debt free, has a growing industrial base, money that is backed by gold and is developing oil pipelines to feed their growing export markets. Does anyone think any country, including the US, would stand to lose that much? Not on your life. Russia is prepared to fight for her sovereignty, and her future just as any sane people would.

Now, consider this, Russia has a 750,000 armed and trained standing army (with nearly the same number in reserve) compared to our 450,000. The newest generation of Russian missiles can now fly at mach 3 and we have NOTHING that can detect them in time or shoot them down. The Russian air force’s planes out numbers ours by at least 2 to 1. The Russian navy has developed nuclear subs that run so deep and so silent that we very rarely can detect them and each one carries enough nuclear weapons to destroy the Eastern US four times over.

If NATO (which means the US military) engages Russia over the Ukraine the conservative estimate of military dead in the first two weeks of fighting is 10,000. Is that a price we want to pay?

Just who should be feared?

[The Maj]

Muleskinner:

I believe we are closer than you might think, even though we disagree in some of the smaller points. The problem with politics and foreign policy is that there are so many “things” that go into the makeup of an issue and the laws of physics generally apply (especially equal and opposite reactions). All of those things have to be weighed and just like in chess, you have to be moves ahead in your strategy or you are going to lose. However, even my and your definition of a loss in this arena might be outweighed by something that was prevented that we could not even see or did not consider. The same is true in the reverse in that something might not have happened had a different course of action been taken.

When you drill down into Ukraine specifically, I honestly do not blame Russia for their actions. If a similar situation occurred in say Mexico and the U.S. needed a buffer zone to keep things from spilling over into the U.S. (especially if the U.S. maintained a military presence in Mexico already and had numerous other assets in Mexico), then such an action might (emphasis on might) be warranted by the U.S. One could even argue that with the drug trade and illegal immigration that such action has been warranted for a very long time but that is an entirely different subject.

However, lets say Russia happened to be a close ally to Mexico and taking such action would lead to a possible confrontation with Russia. That piece of the puzzle would play heavily into whether or not such an action should even be considered. If Russia occupied a position of power in the realm of global influence, then odds are the U.S. would not take action.

What we have now is a President that has displayed weakness on the world stage over and over. One could say that his concessions to Russia on canceling the long range missile interceptors in Europe was the one action that started us down this road. The world took notice when that was canceled and you can bet that Russia took notice as well. Once weakness was perceived, it has perpetuated itself over and over in our dealings with Russia and they have stood in our way on Lybia, Syria, and Iran. They are also attempting to exhibit their influence in Turkey and now they have basically invaded Ukraine. Putin is smart and he will push and push and push until he has what he wants OR he cannot make another move without risking all out war. The funny and tragic thing is, Putin probably only fears China at this point, so when China says “stop” you will probably see Putin stop.

Just who should be feared in this situation? Russia had better be feared because Putin has restored them to a defacto position of power in the world. The better question becomes who vacated that position of power in the world so that Russia could reign back in some of the power it once had when it was the U.S.S.R?

Never in my life did I ever think or believe that I would see the U.S. go from being one of two superpowers in the world, to being the only true superpower, to being #3 on the list. Makes me sick to think about it, actually.

For a new “twist” for sake of discussion, what if Putin’s games have another intended result. If he rattles enough of the world, with the backing of China (both overtly and covertly), then what do you think the economies of the U.S., Japan, and the EU are going to look like? They are already standing on one leg at this point, is Putin trying to knock that leg out, effectively neutralizing them without firing a single shot? This would be the play I would be making.

[Muleskinner]

The Maj:

Oh, I never thought we were anything but on the same page with only minor and very insignificant differences. I do enjoy a conversation with a gentleman who can articulate his position in both words and examples; yet without the angry drivel so many resort to using.

Let’s consider our dealings with Russia and see if we can come to a consensus in light of what is occurring in Libya, Syria, and Iran.

Each country has one thing in common and that is oil. The US position has been weakened, not by our lack military actions or even presence, but by our economic policies which are forcing the world to decouple the US dollar (petrol-dollar) from oil. It not a coincidence that the US government has sought to and was successful in destabilizing Libya and Syria shortly after each country made deals to sell China oil, through Russia, on the barter system without the transfer of American dollars. It is also not a twist of fate that Iran, having more oil then Saudi Arabia, has been unable to develop its oil fields because of the lack of the massive need for electrical power. Nor do I believe, is it by chance that as soon as Iran made the deal to sell oil to Russia—If Russia would aid in building Iran’s nuclear plants—that the western world decided that Iran’s actions were in fact to build nuclear weapons.

It is no secret that once the American dollar is severed from the world’s oil trade then there is nothing backing the dollar since it was disengaged from gold in 1971 by President Nixon under the tutelage of Henry Kissinger. In short without oil backing the dollar; the dollar won’t even be worth a sheet of toilet paper.

As a caveat to all this let’s reflect on Venezuela. At the end of 2012 and beginning of 2013 Venezuela decided to trade oil for goods (bypassing the use of the US dollar) to both Russia and China. Then by the end of 2013 Venezuela has riots? Hmmm, is this a coincidence or a plan? Given what has happened in Libya, and Syria I am inclined to believe Venezuela’s upheavals are manufactured by American interventions.

So what does all this have to do with Russia? Well, Russia has the refineries which China doesn’t have; Europe gets 25 percent of it natural gas from Russia; but more importantly the Ukraine is one of the leading exporters of wheat and corn on the planet. Guess what Russia planned to trade Venezuela for their oil…yup, grains.

The huge amount of money Russia and China have loaned us has put the US government in a bind that they can’t get out of; because we can’t even really develop our own resources. You see, we through our stupid inept leadership over the last 50 years, have turn over the title deed to our natural resources to China. There is nothing left for us to fight with, nothing left to sell, and no where to turn.

We don’t have to look to Putin to see what our economy or the economies of the Western world are going to be. We have been sold down the river by our own; we are now staring into the abyss. Putin doesn’t need to do anything but sit on suicide watch.

We were respected and feared because of our industrial capabilities, our economy functioned because of a respected, valued, solid dollar, our morality was our bulwark against abject evil, and our military presence was respected around the world. Which of these do we have left?

[The Maj]

I cannot argue with much of that. We are left with little to fall back on, but it has not just been inept leadership that has gotten us to this point. “We”, the U.S. Citizens, are as much to blame as anyone else for where we find ourselves today. We are lazy as a society, sitting around with our hands out and blaming everyone else for our troubles. We have continued to elect career politicians and installed people to power that are looking out for their own self interests above all else. We do not even follow politics, watch the news, or keep up with the goings on in the world, opting for “constant entertainment” instead. We have demonized the “rich” and made “blue collar” a dirty word. We seek instant gratification and forgot what it takes to work, make a living, and be proud of what we have instead of wanting more right now. We allow stupid laws to be passed that restrict personal liberties, the right of privacy, and keep us from developing natural resources in this country. We give animals more rights than we once had and demonize Christianity.

I could probably add more but I imagine you get the point. So, I do not just blame our leaders over the past 50+ years for where we stand as a country today.

[Muleskinner]

The Maj:

There is no question that the collective “We” is guilty of everything you mentioned and more. “They” have fiddled while Rome burned not even conscience that the fire was rushing uphill to their own homes. Those of us (and I can’t imagine that you aren’t one) who have been sounding the alarm, for many years, have been laughed at, ridiculed, and shouted down by obnoxious dithering fools. Now, as the chickens come home to roost we are faced with their blank deer in the headlights stare, and they don’t even know that is the expression of the damned. “But don’t worry”, they say, “all we have to do is get the right people into power and this can be fixed.” Yeah right! A mathematical impossibility can’t be fixed any more than “wishing on a star” will bring wealth or the prince of their dreams. So, I offer this question, what will save this country? Are we ill-fated to experience another civil war? Can session bring any sanity to America’s dilemma? Should we hang in there and hope for a military coup? Finally, is it best that America suffer a complete economic and societal collapse that will clean out the lazy, and ignorant among us? None of these are pleasant thoughts but something has to break and when it does, it is going to be a very rude awaking for a great many. We certainly have burned our bridges behind us because no one in the world is going to come to our aid or defense.

[PJ]

things are looking rather bleak, the next few weeks will tell

[Echo5Charlie]

http://thecommonsenseshow.com/2014/03/19/putin-could-win-world-war-iii-without-firing-a-shot/

Interesting read. Not to much new from what’s been posted here. The author is maybe playing it out farther. He has a few words about Syria and Iran playing a role as well. Time will tell.

[Author]

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