Happy New Year (2020): Calm Before the Storm

Greetings to all those who might be reading this, as we move into 2020 the realization that I’ve been working this blog on and off for 8 years comes to mind.  I’ve always been relatively obscure (intentionally) with respect to actual details of my life but I suppose a few tidbits of reflection couldn’t hurt.  I started this blog while living for a year in Washington D.C., stationed there as an Army Officer working a pretty cool assignment.  8 years later I’ve all but wrapped up my military service and truly enjoy living out here in the Rocky Mountains.  Ever since I was a kid watching my dad jump out of airplanes at Fort Bragg all I ever wanted to be was in the Army.  Over 22 years of service has taken me to places of the world I never expected and afforded me the opportunity to know some great individuals and have some amazing experiences, especially in the latter portion of my career.  All that to say here we are in another decade and it’s time to put that aside and focus on the future.

2020 Is Upon Us

When I started this blog it was 2012 and I was fairly convinced we were in for some rough waters ahead, 8 years later times have never been better.  The stock market is at all time highs, sh*t my own home has gained extraordinary equity over the years, seemingly most are employed at fantastic jobs and life is good.  Just take a quick inventory of the amount of 80-100k luxury pickups on the roads these days and wow, things must be great all the way around!  In the summer I can’t tell you how many gigantic SUV’s and Luxury pickups I see pulling equally gigantic campers and toy haulers into the mountains.  Obviously that is a very narrow gauge of how “most people” are doing but I travel rather frequently and must say that it’s just about the same everywhere I go.  That being said all of this present prosperity does give me room for pause, allow me to explain.

What Cannot Go On Forever, Will Stop

I believe I got this phrase from a Mark Steyn book I read a few years back but it certainly applies here.  The markets going up, up and up forever unimpeded?  Certainly not.  Debt is once again unbelievably easy to obtain and people will continue to get in over their heads, whether it be the aforementioned luxury vehicles or homes and HELOC’s that stretch their income to the limit and then some.  As long as times are good, times are good.  Toss a little or even big hiccup in there and times go from good to desperate quickly.  Personally I don’t think this amazing run can continue through this decade and that’s just based on what I’ve seen in the past.  What concerns me is that whatever bad ju-ju happens could be equal to or greater than the recession of over a decade ago.  If that happens all bets are off the table.  Our society is stretched thin, political unrest is like I’ve never seen it, the ability for people to exist without a host of modern conveniences is questionable.  Your guess is as good as mine but I suppose all we can do is MAXIMIZE the good times so that when the bad times come we won’t be as bad off.  Sort of like preparing for the winter during the summer, or something like that.

So What To Do?

I suppose the answer here is: It Depends.  There are so many variables here I guess it really hinges on your own personal circumstances and priorities.  One could have millions in the bank and the best survival shelter known to man but also a bad heart and host of meds necessary to survive, probably a different set of circumstances than the suburban family living in the culdesac next to the community pool with some guns and a year’s supply of food in the basement.  Personally I think it’s more about skills than stuff but I must admit I do like stuff.

I think that one cannot underestimate financial obligations during the lean times enough.  In other words, if it’s time to “get small” can you still afford to live in the house, first and foremost.  Screw car payments, things like cable TV and the cell phone bills…can you keep a roof over your head and all of the necessary supplies you have with you.  Some might say that if it gets bad enough bills will magically go away, if things get that damn bad other things will go away too like medical care, available gasoline and groceries and a bunch of other essentials.  Whoa be unto the prepper that actually seeks out that sort of life, personally I enjoy climate control and the internet (and BBQ ribs).

For me personally I guess it’s a compromise of all things.  If SHTF is on the apocalyptic level we are all collectively screwed so I’ll prep for the likely scenario which includes another recession. Here are some bullet points:

• Be good at my job so that if things go down, I’ll most likely keep my job in some capacity = steady income
• Pay down as much debt as possible, don’t get new debt
• Continue to stockpile necessary essentials like ammunition (for training) and storage food
• Continue to improve my foxhole so to speak, the home and land around me and the ability to be self sufficient
• Maintain relationships with the right people, continue to build community
• Try to stay healthy, one of the most overrated preps

Final Thoughts

As we move into this decade there are no guarantees that life will get better or worse, all that we do know for a fact is that the clock never stops ticking.  I think we must continue to live and enjoy things to the best of our collective abilities understanding that if the balloon goes up…whatever you have and know at that time is what it is.  That being said I wish all of you an amazing 2020 and thank you for sticking around.